The year 2023 is in line with our forecasts, and two observations stand out. Exogenous factors have impacted demand for real estate, resulting in lower volumes and prices. Paradoxically, this rationalization of the market has consolidated the very high-end segment in Paris. Let's take an in-depth look at this paradoxical situation and try to deduce the lessons for a most promising 2024.
These observations are based on market data provided by Mobilis Group teams.
1st half 2023
The sudden rise in interest rates led to a reduction in household demand, mechanically resulting in a drop in transaction volumes. This phenomenon gradually affected all categories of goods and prices, with the exception of those in the zero-default category, which remained sheltered from these fluctuations.
For the Mobilis Group, volumes fell by around 21% compared with a very good 2022. Value was less affected, with a fall of 18%, mainly due to an increase of around 2% in the share of transactions exceeding 3 million euros compared with the first half of 2022.
The resilience of the very high-end is explained by :
- A limited supply of high-end properties with solid fundamentals.
- Sustained demand at home and abroad, thanks in particular to the vitality of certain sectors such as luxury goods, sports, healthcare, energy and transport.
- Upscale Parisian stone remains the ultimate safe haven in a context of geopolitical uncertainty.
2nd half 2023
Efforts to reconcile supply and demand are beginning to yield tangible results.
Sellers, especially those forced to sell, are adjusting to the new market parameters. The €10,000/m2 mark is frequently breached on the downside, even in neighborhoods initially considered privileged. Market liquidity is showing signs of a gradual recovery. At the same time, the very high-end segment continues to demonstrate its counter-cyclical nature. This trend is reflected in our data, where the decline in transaction volumes will ultimately be contained to 17.5% for the year. The fall in value will be around 2 points lower, thanks to our substantial share of properties sold in excess of 3 million euros (and even 5 million euros for the second half).
The outlook for 2024
